STOCKS
The 20780-20410 range is holding well for Dow (20656.10, -0.03%) just now. The last 2 daily candle formation indicates a stable movement in the near term. We may expect some sideways consolidation in the coming sessions.
Dax (12225.06, -0.05%) is trying to move up towards 12400 while above support near 12090. Near term looks bullish.
Shanghai (3279.17, -0.23%) is trading just below 3300 levels last seen in Nov’16 and if no immediate rejection is seen, it could rally towards 3400 in the near term.
Nikkei (18786.72, +0.65) has bounced back above 18650 and could move up towards 19150 levels in the near term. While the dollar remains strong, Nikkei could remain stable in the broad 19200-18650 region for some time.
Nifty (9198.30, -0.69%) has immediate support near 9150-9100 region which if holds could take the index to higher levels in the coming sessions. Near term looks potentially bullish.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1250) was almost unchanged and trading within a range of 1236-62. We continue to look for a close above 1260 levels in the near term to take fresh buy positions. But before that it may spend a few sessions within the 1236-62 regions.
Silver (17.95) has tested its resistance at 18.50 but unable to gather momentum to close higher. Immediate trading range could be 17.80-18.30. Overall we need to wait for confirmation for immediate directional clarity.
Copper (2.62) has been stuck in the range of 2.55-2.70 for 6th consecutive week running with no visible intent for a breakout. The horizontal trading may go on for another week. In the medium term 2.55-57 are going to be a strong support now but a close below that could open up 2.50 and 2.45 levels respectively.
Oil prices were firm, supported by geo-political uncertainty in Syria, although another rise in U.S. drilling activity kept a lid on gains.
Brent (55.30) and WTI (52.34) are hovering around their major resistances of 55.50 and 52.50 respectively, and a close above that could open up higher resistances of 57 and 54. While 55.50 for Brent and 52.50 for WTI may hold for a few sessions, considering the short term overbought state, but the chances of seeing higher levels can’t be ruled out.
In case of any surplus in U.S crude inventories, the upside in the near term may be limited to 56 and 53. The trend is bullish in the near term time frame and any corrective fall may add fresh longs at the lower levels.
FOREX
Despite weaker than expected jobs report last Friday and geopolitical tension over Syria and North Korea, the markets are resilient and showing increased risk appetite, boosting the Dollar and weakening the Yen.
Dollar Index (101.32) has achieved our immediate upside targets of 101.35 and now may test the resistance of 101.55-75 before it can attempt 102.10-25 levels.
Euro (1.0575) has met all our downside targets till 1.0580 but if the immediate support 1.0550 fails to hold, then further decline to 1.0450 is possible too. Euro bulls need to defend 1.0550.
Not taking any firm bearish stance in Dollar Yen (111.48) paid off as it bounced exactly from our support of 110.10 but it must overcome the immediate resistance near 111.60 before further upside to 112.20 and higher levels come into consideration.
Pound (1.2377) has resolved the Triangle pattern discussed last week to the downside but the support of 1.2350 is intact yet below which comes the major support of 1.2300. To keep any upside possibilities open in the near term, the support of 1.2300 must hold, otherwise much lower levels may open up.
Aussie (0.7478), contrary to expectations, has broken below the support of 0.7500 and now the decline may extend to 0.7450 or even 0.7375 in the coming days, especially if Copper (2.627) breaks below the support of 2.60-57 (Check Commodities section)
Dollar-Rupee (64.28) has achieved all our downside targets till 64.20 and now there are chances of seeing 64.60 in the next 1-2 sessions but higher levels may come into consideration only on a rise above 64.60. In case 64.20-15 fails to hold, the decline may extend to 64.00 and then 63.65-55.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have bounced from support levels as expected and could continue to rise in the coming sessions. The 5Yr (1.94%), 10YR (2.40%) and 30Yr (3.02%) are up from 1.92%, 2.38% and 3.01% and could rise towards 2%, 2.5% and 3.105 respectively.
The German-Us 2Yr (-2.11%) and the 10Yr (-2.16%) are both falling sharply and if it continues to fall, it could push euro towards 1.050 in the near term.
The US-Japan 10Yr (2.35%) has risen from horizontal support coming from Feb’17 near 2.25% and while that holds, it could move up towards 2.4% keeping the Yen weak and Nikkei at higher levels.
