After deeper than expected pull back, EUR/GBP’s rebound resumed by breaking 0.8790 last week. The development affirmed the case of near term reversal. That is, decline from 0.9305 has completed at 0.8620. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.8967 cluster resistance next (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). Break will confirm this view and target retesting 0.9305. On the downside, below 0.8679 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8620 instead.
In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we’d be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
