AUD/USD – 0.7552
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sell at 0.7605, Target: 0.7410, Stop: 0.7665
Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –
New strategy :
Buy at 0.7525, Target: 0.7680, Stop: 0.7465
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although aussie has fallen again after brief recovery to 0.7588 and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 0.7750 to extend weakness to 0.7520-25 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon indicated support at 0.7491 would hold, bring rebound later, above said resistance at 0.7588 would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed, bring rebound to 0.7625-30 and later towards resistance at 0.7680-85.
In view of this, we are inclined to buy aussie on next decline. Below said support at 0.7491 would signal the fall from 0.7750 is still in progress for further weakness to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), risk from there is seen for a rebound later.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.
