STOCKS
Dow (23979.10, +0.19%) has been fluctuating within the 23300-24500 region for quite some time now. The upper levels of 24500 may gradually come down to narrow the trade region to 24250-23300 in the next few sessions. The index may spend another week in this range before trying to break on either side sharply.
Dax (12261.75, +0.17%) has broken above 12300 resistance mentioned yesterday. Now the next resistance near 12500 is the only barrier which could push the index back towards 12300 or lower in the next few sessions. If Dax manages to break above 12500 in the coming sessions, it could start moving higher towards 12800 again. Watch price action near interim resistance at 12500.
Nikkei (21772.71, +0.44%) faces resistance near 21800 on the 3-day candles. If that breaks on the upside, the index could turn bullish targeting 22500 in the medium term. If 21800 holds, Nikkei could come off to 21000.
Shanghai (3155.53, +0.55%) has some chances of moving up or at least to remain stable while above 3100. The support at 3100 looks like it lacks the strength to push the index higher just now which could lead to some consolidation in the 3200-3100 region for the coming sessions. A fall below 3100, if seen could take it down to 3000. Else a gradual and slow rise back towards 3200+ levels could be possible soon.
Nifty (10379.35, +0.46%) tested 10400 on the upside yesterday. As mentioned yesterday, Nifty could find some rejection near 10400-10500 region which could lead to a short dip towards 10300-10250 levels. Sensex (33788.54, +0.48%) could face similar rejection from 34000 levels in the next 1-2 sessions.
COMMODITIES
Brent (68.99) tested 67 and has seen a decent bounce from there. If the rise continues, it may head back towards 70-71 levels in the near term. Nymex WTI (63.85) bounced from support as mentioned yesterday. It could move higher towards 65. Near term looks bullish.
Gold (1334.22) is stuck in the narrow 1320-1350 region and is likely to remain stable in the coming sessions too. No major movement expected this week.
Copper (3.099) has risen in the last couple of sessions and is trading just below resistance near 3.10. If 3.10 holds, Copper could come off towards 3.05-3.00 again; else a break above 3.10 could take it higher towards 3.15.
FOREX
Dollar index (89.89) has dipped further after testing resistance on 3 day and weekly candles near 90.5-90.6 last week. The 13 day and 21 day moving average lines on the daily line chart could provide some interim support near present levels. On break of the moving averages, the next downside targets are seen as support on weekly line chart near 89.5 and lower support near 89.25 on daily candles.
Euro (1.2311), after having bounced from support near 1.2225 on daily candles yesterday, is probably facing some interim resistance from the 21 days moving average line on the daily line chart. A breach of the same would take it towards resistance on daily line chart near 1.245. A decisive breach above 1.25-1.26 would imply medium term bullishness for the Euro. While it stays below 1.25-1.26, it could continue its ranging between 1.215-1.255 of the past 2 months.
Dollar Yen (107.07) as per our expectation yesterday, is getting some support by earlier resistance trendline on daily candles and daily line chart near 106.8. If it stays above this level and then moves beyond its previous high of 107.9 (seen in Feb end), it could imply medium term bullishness for Dollar Yen.
Euro Yen (131.85) as we predicted yesterday has breached resistance in downward channel on 3 day and weekly candles as the Euro has moved up towards 1.232 and the Dollar Yen has stayed above 106.80. If Euro moves further up towards 1.245 and Dollar Yen towards 107.5, it would imply Euro Yen touching 133-134. However, the 21 week moving average line near 133 on the weekly line chart might keep the upside restricted in the short term.
Pound (1.4127) as per our expectation is moving up towards 1.42 (seen as resistance on daily and 3 day candles). If it stays above 1.39-1.40, it could be headed in the medium term towards resistance near 1.46 on the weekly line chart.
Dollar Rupee (65.0225) : Support at 64.80 held yesterday. See chances of 65.20 in 2-3 days.
INTEREST RATES
US long term yields have been moving in a downward channel since the Fed rate hike last month. The US CPI data release tomorrow (11th April) could be important for yields – analysts expect some moderation in monthly gain figures; however the year-on-year gain figures could reflect higher inflation (which could be slightly misleading considering last year’s low figures in March).
High year on year figures could take yields higher temporarily but a moderation in monthly gains could mean that yields will continue moving down through Apr-May.
US 10 Yr Yield (2.8046%), 30 Yr (3.016%), 5 Yr (2.623%), 2 Yr (2.2987%) :
The 10 Year instead of dipping lower towards support near 2.74% on the short term chart, has moved up and might test resistance near 2.83%-2.85% in the next 1-2 days.
The 30 yr yield as expected, has dipped further towards 3% after having tested channel resistance near 3.07%.
