EUR/GBP dropped to as low as 0.8666 last week and breached 0.8686 key support. But it couldn’t sustain below this level and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.8757 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway pattern with another rise, towards 0.8967. Nonetheless, break of 0.8666 again and sustained trading below 0.8686 will resume whole fall from 0.9305 and target 0.8303 key support next.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
