EUR/USD is showing little movement in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0670. It’s a very busy start to the week, with a host of manufacturing releases out of the eurozone and the US. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.3, while Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.2 points. In the US, today’s highlight is ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to dip to 57.2 points. We’ll also hear from two FOMC members – Esther Dudley and Patrick Harker.
The euro has steadied on Monday, following a weak performance last week. EUR/USD dropped 1.9 percent, marking its worst weekly decline since November 2016. Soft inflation numbers in the eurozone disappointed the markets and soured sentiment on the continental currency. German Preliminary CPI posted a weak gain of 0.2%, short of the forecast of 0.4%. This was followed by Eurozone Flash CPI Estimate, which slipped to 1.5%, missing the forecast of 1.8%. At the same time, German employment and retail sales data beat expectations, as the German economy continues to expand at a healthy clip in 2017.
Donald Trump’s presidency has been anything but smooth. The battles with the media continue, an economic policy remains a mystery, and Trump suffered a major setback has he couldn’t even muster a vote over his healthcare bill. Despite these hiccups, the US economy hasn’t missed a beat in 2017. The CB consumer confidence report soared to 125.6 in March, and strong consumer confidence levels should translate into increased consumer spending. GDP for the fourth quarter was revised to 2.1%, up from 1.9% in the previous GDP report. This points to strong growth for the economy, as the discussions around the monetary policy tables are not whether the Fed will raise rates, but will it press the rate trigger twice or three times in 2017. The Fed will release the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday, and the markets will be looking for clues as to the timing of a possible rate hike.
