Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.25 %, Hang Seng gained 0.45 %, ASX 200 fell 0.30 %, Shanghai Composite closed for holiday
- Commodities: Gold at $1250 (-0.05 %), Silver at $18.24 (-0.10 %), WTI Oil at $50.50 (-0.15 %), Brent Oil at $53.40 (-0.20 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.40, UK 10-year yield at 1.14, German 10-year yield at 0.33
News & Data:
- Australian AIG Manufacturing Index Mar: 57.5 (prev 59.3)
- Australian Retail Sales (MoM) Feb: -0.1% (exp 3.0%; prior 0.4%)
- Australian Building Approvals (MoM) Feb: 8.3% (exp -1.0%; prior 1.8%)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index 1Q: 12 (exp 14; prior 10)
- Japanese Large Manufacturing Outlook 1Q: 11 (exp 13; prior 8)
- Japanese Large Non-Manufacturing Index 1Q: 20 (exp 20; prior 18)
- Japanese Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook 1Q: 16 (exp 18; prior 16)
- Japanese Large All Industry CAPEX 1Q: 0.6% (exp -0.1%; prior 5.5%)
- Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Mar: 52.4 (prior 52.6)
- South Korean Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Mar: 48.4 (prior 49.2)
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 8K vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
- GBP short 104K vs 108K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
- JPY short 53K vs 67K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 14K
- CHF short 16K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
- CAD short 28K vs 24K short. Shorts increased by 4K
- AUD long 53K vs 45K long. Longs increased by 8K
- NZD short 13K vs 13K short last week. No change
Markets Update:
The FX market had a quiet start into the new trading week. The Euro recovered slightly, rising from 1.0650 to 1.0680 against the US Dollar. Selling interest is noted at 1.07 and 1.0720, while the next notable support level now lies at 1.06.
GBP/USD increased from 1.2525 to 1.2555 in Asia. The Pound remains strong, despite worries around the Brexit process. Recent UK economic data has been solid, putting the Bank of England back into the spotlight. The central bank might be forced to increase interest rates soon, amid rising inflation.
USD/JPY started the new trading week around 111.40 and declined to 111.10, as equity markets fell as well. Support is seen at 110.80, followed by 110.20 and the key level at 110.00. AUD/USD also came under pressure as risk appetite decrease. The currency pair declined from 0.7640 to 0.7610.
Upcoming Events:
- 08:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI
- 08:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
- 14:45 GMT – US Markit Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00 GMT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 15:30 GMT – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
- 22:00 GMT – FOMC Member Lacker speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, April 4th
- 05:30 GMT – RBA Rate Decision
- 05:30 GMT – RBA Statement
- 09:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Retail Sales
- 10:15 GMT – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Trade Balance
- 14:30 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
- 15:00 GMT – US Factory Orders
Wednesday, April 5th
- 08:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI
- 08:50 GMT – French Services PMI
- 08:55 GMT – German Services PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Services PMI
- 13:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 14:45 GMT – US Markit Services PMI
- 15:00 GMT – US ISM Services PMI
- 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday, April 6th
- 02:45 GMT – Chinese Caixin Services PMI
- 07:00 GMT – German Factory Orders
- 08:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
- 08:15 GMT – Swiss CPI
- 12:30 GMT – ECB Meeting Minutes
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 14:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
- 17:40 GMT – ECB Member Praet speaks
- 18:15 GMT – ECB Member Constancio speaks
Friday, April 7th
- 06:45 GMT – Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 07:00 GMT – German Trade Balance
- 07:00 GMT – German Industrial Production
- 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
- 08:30 GMT – UK Halifax House Price Index
- 09:30 GMT – UK Industrial Production
- 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing Production
- 09:30 GMT – UK Trade Balance
- 10:00 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
- 13:30 GMT – US NFP
- 13:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 GMT – US Average Hourly Earnings
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Employment Change
- 15:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI
- 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
