EUR/GBP’s decline from 0.8976 extended lower last week even though downside momentum was unconvincing. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.8771 support first. Break of 0.8771 support will confirm completion of rebound from 0.8686 and target a retest of this low. On the upside, above 0.8896 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Further break of 0.8967 will resume the rebound from 0.8686 to 61.8% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8686 at 0.9069.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
