USD/CAD is unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3340. On the release front, the US releases Final GDP, with an estimate of 2.0%, compared to Preliminary GDP which came in at 1.9%. We’ll also get a look at unemployment claims. There are no Canadian events on the schedule. On Friday, Canada releases GDP, with the estimate standing at 0.3%. The US releases UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to improve to 97.8 points.
What’s next for the Bank of Canada? On Tuesday, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz hinted that the BoC would not be raising interest rates in the near future, saying that the Canadian economy had not yet recovered from the huge drop in oil prices. He added that raising interests rates back to “normal” would have a negative effect on the economy and would likely trigger a recession. The last time the BoE raised rates was in 2010, and analysts don’t forecast another hike before 2018. President Trump’s “America first” stance is a serious concern for Canada, which is heavily reliant on open trade. Poloz criticized Trump’s protectionist agenda, saying that “protectionism does not promote growth and its costs are steep”.
It’s been a rough start for the Trump administration, which has been beset by controversy and crises. Trump, who has been in office for more than two months, has yet to provide any details of an economic policy, to the consternation of the markets. Last week, Trump’s proposed bill was dead on arrival before even being voted on, a humiliating defeat for the president. This setback has made the markets even more jittery about Trump, and the inquiry into the Trump administration’s links with Russia is gathering steam, which is another cause for concern for nervous investors. Trump has said he will now focus on tax reform, but the White House will need to improve coordination with Republican lawmakers to ensure that his next attempt to pass legislation is not a repeat of the healthcare debacle.
