Dollar Showing Sign of Reversal, But Yen Even Stronger on Risk Aversion

Yen overtakes Dollar as the strongest major currency for the week so far as helped by risk aversion. DOW dropped -380.83 or -1.5% overnight to close at 25022.42. That also marked the first monthly decline after a 10 month winning streak. All markets will turn their focus to round two of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony. But seen as being a straight forward person, he’s not expected to alter his messages that rocked the markets two days ago.

More on Powell in Hawkish Powell Raises Hopes For Four Rate Hikes This Year

Elsewhere in the currency markets, Commodity currencies and Sterling trading as the weakest ones. Fresh selling is seen in Australian Dollar after data show business investments unexpectedly shrank in Q4. Sterling was pressured by renewed Brexit uncertainties.

Technically, Dollar is finally showing sign of trend reversal. 1.22 handle in EUR/USD was already breached and focus will now be on whether it can be sustained. USD/CHF will likely have a take on equivalent resistance at 0.9469 too.

UK PM May to meet EC President Tusk today

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be meeting European Council President Donald Tusk today, ahead of her high profile speech on post-Brexit UK-EU relationship tomorrow. May has already expressed her objection to EU’s draft Brexit treaty published yesterday. In particular, the treaty proposed a "common regulatory area" to keep Northern Ireland in a customs union, as a fall back solution. May said that "no UK prime minister" will accept that and that she would make that "crystal clear" to EU officials.

On the other hand, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier warned that UK must honor what it committed back in December, that is, avoiding any sort of hard border in the island of Ireland. He told reports that "I don’t bluff anybody … I am taking note of what was written by the UK itself in that joint report." The taoiseach of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, also said that It’s "not OK" for UK to "just say no now". Varadkar said if UK politicians don’t want the EU solution, they must come up with another plan.

Germany: Narrow majority of SPD voters supporting grand coalition

In Germany, all eyes are on the result of votes of 464,000 SPD members on the grand coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU. Accord to a poll released yesterday, there is only a narrow majority of 56% of SPD voters favoring the grand coalition. Results should be published this Sunday. CSU leader Horst Seehofer said that if the formation of the grand coalition fails, he’s prefer new elections. Senior officials from the CDU, CSU and SPD are meeting today to iron out outstanding issues on the formation of a coalition

BoJ Kataoka warned on premature stimulus exit

BoJ board member Goushi Kataoka urged that "to influence inflation expectations, it is essential that policy coordination between the government and the BOJ … is firmly ensured through action by both entities." And he noted that " there is still a long way to go before considering a change in monetary policy stance." He warned against premature stimulus exit as that could drag Japan back into deflation. Kataoka is the persistent sole dissenter in BoJ since joining last year, pushing for more aggressive easing.

Released from Japan, capital spending rose 4.3% in Q4, above expectation of 3.0%. PMI manufacturing was revised up by 0.1 to 54.1 in February.

Caixin China PMI manufacturing hit six-month high

The Caixin China PMI manufacturing rose 0.1 to 51.6 in February, above expectation of 51.3. The index focuses on small to mid-size manufacturers hit a six-month high. Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin noted that "for now, the durability of the Chinese economy will persist. Looking ahead, whether demand generated from the beginning of work in March will gain strength will be key in determining China’s economic direction for 2018."

Australia private capital expenditure unexpectedly dropped -0.2% in Q4, comparing to expectation of 1.0% rise. However, that’s probably due to the large upward revision in the prior quarter, from 1.0% to 1.9%. New Zealand terms of trade dropped -0.2% qoq in Q4, below expectation of 0.5% qoq.

Looking ahead

The economic calendar is very busy today. Swiss GDP, retail sales and PMI manufacturing will be released in Europeans session. Eurozone will release PMI manufacturing revision and unemployment rate. UK will release PMI manufacturing, M4 and mortgage approvals.

Later in the day, US will release personal income and spending, jobless claims, construction spending and ISM manufacturing. Canada will release current account and PMI manufacturing.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2173; (P) 1.2207 (R1) 1.2227; More….

EUR/USD’s break of 1.2205 key support is taken as a tentative sign of trend reversal, after being rejected by 1.2516 key fibonacci level. Intraday bias is now on the downside. Sustained trading below 1.2205 will confirm and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708. On the upside, above 1.2354 minor resistance will dampen this bearish case and bring retest of 1.2555 high instead.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.5553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Economic Indicators Update