Gold has posted small losses in the Thursday session. In North American trade, the spot price for an ounce of gold is $1343.22, down 0.14% on the day. On the release front, employment data was positive, as unemployment claims dropped to 230 thousand, below the forecast of 237 thousand. ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 59.1, but still beat the estimate of 58.7 points. ISM Manufacturing PMI slowed to 59.1, but still beat the estimate of 58.7 points. On Friday, the spotlight will be on employment numbers, with the release of wage growth, nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. As well, the US releases UoM Consumer Sentiment.
As expected, the Federal Reserve held the course on interest rate policy at its January meeting on Wednesday. In the rate statement, policymakers said that they expected the economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace and that the labor market would remain strong in 2018. What was more noteworthy was that the Fed predicted that inflation would rise to the Fed’s 2 percent target this year. This marks an upgrade in the inflation forecast, as the December statement said that inflation was expected to “remain somewhat below 2 percent.” Higher inflation is likely to open the door to tighter monetary policy, and the Fed appears on track for three or even four rate hikes in 2018, assuming that the US economy remains strong. This policy meeting was the last under Janet Yellen, as Jerome Powell will take over as Fed chair on February 3. The slightly hawkish tone of the rate statement has raised the odds of a rate hike to 83% when the Fed next meets in March.
Gold posted gains last week, taking advantage of a USD sell-off. However, the dollar has steadied this week, and gold prices are slightly lower. Since the start of the year, gold is up 2.2%, joining the major currencies which have posted gains against the greenback in 2018. This has been somewhat of a surprise, as the robust US economy has supported risk appetite, yet gold has not lost its luster early in 2018. Last week, gold climbed to $1366, its highest level since August 2016.
