EUR/GBP’s breach of 0.8808 support last week suggests that rebound from 0.8688 is already completed at 0.8928. Further fall is expected this week to retest 0.8688. Firm break there would resume whole fall from 0.9305 to retest 0.8303/12 key support zone. And, this will now be the favored as long as 0.8928 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we’d expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we’d expect another medium term up trend through 0.9799 to 100% projection of 0.5680 to 0.9799 from 0.6935 at 1.1054.
