NZDUSD has been in a long-term uptrend but has also recorded significant downward corrections. The price rose more than 58% from January 2001 until August 2011 and hit its highest level through these years at the 0.8840 resistance barrier.
From the technical point of view, on a monthly basis, the stochastic oscillator is ready for a slight upward slope after its entry in the oversold area, signaling an upwards correction. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving north but remains in the negative territory.
In the medium-term timeframe (weekly chart), the pair broke the ascending trend line (in place since September 2015) to the downside, indicating for further losses. However, over the last week, the price posted a green session following the bounce off the 0.6770 support level. In case of a rise, the price needs to go through the 100 and 50, and 200-week SMAs as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.7053.
The next level to watch is the 0.7560 key level, which coincides with the 100-month simple moving average in the monthly chart and is near with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level with the high at 0.8840 and the low at 0.6230. A deeper retracement could risk eliminating the medium-term bullish outlook but if the market remains above the key 0.6770 level there is room for an extension above 0.7000. On the reverse side, a drop below 0.6770 could open the way for a test of the 0.6345 barrier.
Having a look at the momentum indicators in the weekly chart the RSI indicator is approaching the 50 level and the bullish area, whilst the MACD oscillator printed a bullish crossover with its trigger line, suggesting the medium-term momentum is shifting back to the upside.
