Notes/Observations
Spanish IBEX seeing broad declines amid Catalan vote
UK and French GDP final reading revised higher
FTSE 100 touches all time high
Asia:
Japan Cabinet approves annual general-account budget spending of ¥97.71T for FY18/19 (record); Approves FY17/18 supplementary budget with added spending of ¥2.71T (as expected)
Europe:
Catalan separatists have won majority of seats in the regional parliament; The Separatists said to have won 70 out of 135 seats in the regional assembly, according to a financial press report; pro-unity party for the first time became the biggest single bloc in the Catalan parliament
French and UK Q3 GDP Y/Y readings revised slightly higher, French consumer spending beats estimates – Germany’s Sigmar Gabriel said to warn of minority government
Economic Data:
(UK) Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.5%E
(UK) Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT: -£22.8B V -£21.4BE
(FR) FRANCE NOV CONSUMER SPENDING M/M: 2.2% V +1.4%E; Y/Y: 1.2% V 0.4%E
(FR) France Nov PPI M/M: 1.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.5% prior
(FR) FRANCE Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.6% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%E
(DE) GERMANY NOV IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.8% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E
(DE) GERMANY JAN GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.8 V 10.7E
(IT) ITALY DEC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 116.6 V 114.6E; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 110.5V 111.0E
(CH) SWISS DEC KOF LEADING INDICATOR: 111.3 V 110.5E
(ES) Spain Nov PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.8% prior
Fixed Income Issuance:
(DK) Denmark sells total DK2.6B in 3-month and 6-month bills
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Equities
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3% at 3,559, FTSE +0.1% at 7,609, DAX -0.2% at 13,086, CAC-40 -0.2% at 5,375, IBEX-35 -1.0% at 10,198, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 22,169, SMI -0.1% at 9,414, S&P 500 Futures +0.1%]
Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices opened lower and tracked sideways with only UK managing to turn back to green; Spanish stocks impacted by result of Catalan vote; electoral results in Spain weigh on periphery; shortened trading session due to upcoming holidays; Roche announces acquisition of Ignyta; GVC Holding to buy Ladbrokes Coral; attention turning to upcoming data from US including personal income and spending, and PCE deflator.
Equities
Consumer Discretionary [GVC Holdings GVC.UK -1.8% (acquisition)]
Energy [Saipem SPM.IT +0.1% (arbitration decision)]
Financials [Banca Carige CRG.IT -8.9% (share issue)]
Healthcare [Roche ROG.CH -0.3% (acquisition)]
Industrials [Carillion CLLN.UK +4.4% (financial restructuring), Mondi MNDI.UK -0.4% (acquisition), Vallourec VK.FR +5.6% (analyst action)]
Telecom [Eutelsat ETL.FR +4.0% (analyst action)]
Speakers
(FR) French Pres Macron says could fine telecom companies for failure to help with wiring rural France
(RU) Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: After talks with UK Foreign Secretary, discusses concrete steps to normalize relations; Agreed to discuss impact of Brexit on Russia-British Ties
Currencies
EUR/USD pair recovers from early weakness following the Catalan vote, bouncing from 1.1817 low. GBP/USD pushes towards $1.34 following a revised higher GDP print.
Fixed Income
Friday’s liquidity report showed Thursday’s Excess liquidity at €1.829T use of the marginal lending facility rose to €240M from €180M prior.
Corporate issuance – Primary expected to close for the year
Looking Ahead
06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
07:00 (CL) Chile Nov PPI M/M: No est v 2.5% prior
07:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v -34.8B prior
07:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Outstanding Loans (BRL): 3.064Te v 3.052T prior; M/M: No est v 0.1% prior, Personal Loan Default Rate: 5.5%e v 5.6% prior
08:00 (PL) Poland Nov M3 Money Supply M/M: 1.2%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior
08:30 (US) Nov Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Spending: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
08:30 (US) Nov PCE Deflator M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.6% prior
08:30 (US) Nov PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior
08:30 (US) Nov Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: +2.0%e v -0.8% prior; Durables Ex-Transportation: 0.5%e v 0.9% prior; Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/ex-aircraft):0.5%e v 0.3% prior; Capital Goods Shipment (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.3%e v 1.1% prior; Durables Ex-Defense: No est v 0.2% prior
08:30 (CA) Canada Oct GDP M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.3% prior
09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Unemployment Rate (seasonally adj): 3.4%e v 3.4% prior; Unemployment Rate (unadj): 3.3%e v 3.5% prior
10:00 (US) Nov New Home Sales: 651Ke v 685K prior
10:00 (US) University of Michigan Dec Final Consumer Confidence: 97.2e v 96.8 prelim
11:00 (US) Dec Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index: 15e v 16 prior
13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count data
14:00 (CO) Colombia Oct Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) Y/Y: 1.2%e v 0.2% prior
