STOCKS
Dow (24504.80, +0.49%) and Dax (13183.53, +0.46%) are up about 0.50%. While Dow has some more scope of rising towards 24600, Dax does not look very bullish while below resistance at 13200. Dax could test lower levels of 13000 while Dow may slowly inch up in the near term.
Nikkei (22816.93, -0.22%) has immediate resistance near 23200 which is likely to hold in the near term, pushing the index back to levels near 22600 or lower. But unless a sharp fall in Dollar Yen is seen, Nikkei could remain stable and trade along the near term channel resistance.
Shanghai (3281.75, +0.03%) is almost stable just now. Support near 3280-3270 is visible on the daily charts and while that holds, a bounce back to higher levels of 3320 is possible. Near term looks bullish.
Nifty (10240.15, -0.80%) and Sensex (33227.99, -0.68%) are in the correction phase as expected. Near term looks bearish. Sensex could fall towards 33000 while Nifty may test 10100 on the downside
COMMODITIES
Gold (1243.29) is almost stable. Need to see if it holds above 1240 today or comes down to test 1220. Movement in the next couple of sessions would be crucial.
Silver (15.72) is stable above 15.60. The price is likely to rise towards 16 and higher in the coming sessions.
Brent (63.95) and WTI (57.55) came off sharply but the bulls may continue to take the price up in the medium term. While WTI has resistance near 59-60, Brent looks positive towards 68 before a sharp fall is seen.
Copper (3.0180) is likely to trade within 2.95-3.10 region in the near to medium term. It could rise towards 3.10 in the next few sessions before again coming off towards 3.00.
FOREX
Dollar-Index (93.945) is now testing resistance around 94.00 on the 3 day candles and daily line charts. This is an important resistance, whose hold could indicate to a possible downtrend towards 93 by end of this month. However a breach of resistance would possibly lead to a test of 94.40-94.50 on the daily candles, from where a definitive dip could follow.
Euro (1.1768) is trading just above immediate support (around 1.173-1.175) on the 3 day candles, which is likely to hold and take it towards 1.19 by the end of the month. A break of immediate support could however lead to testing of lower support around 1.17 (as seen on daily candles, 3 day candles & daily line charts), which could then prove to be a strong support.
Dollar-Yen (113.48), like the Dollar Index, seems to be seeing a dip from resistance level (around 113.5-113.6) on the daily line chart. A further test of higher resistance at 114 could still be possible with an eventual dip back towards 112-112.5 by next month.
Pound (1.3340) has broken support at 1.335 and is now expected to move towards 1.32-1.3225, which is seen as a strong support level on daily, 3 day and weekly charts.
Dollar Rupee (64.3650) may test 64.30/25 today and then bounce back towards 64.50 by the end of the week. Possibility of corresponding movement in the Nifty towards resistance (10350) and a dip from there coincides with predicted Dollar Rupee movement.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are have risen as expected. The 5Yr (2.17%), 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) are slightly up from previous levels. The 10YR may come off from current levels or move up further to test 2.45-2.50% in the medium term. The 5Yr has scope of rising towards 2.25% while the 30Yr may face some rejection from 2.80%.
The US-Japan 10Yr (2.36%) is attempting to break above immediate resistance levels and if that sustains, it could move p towards 2.40% and higher, pulling up Dollar Yen and Nikkei along with itself.
The UK-US 10YR (-1.18%) is stable. While the spread looks bearish, Pound could also move down towards 1.32-1.31 in the coming sessions.
The German-US 10YR (-2.09%) could pause at -2.10%. Important events to note would be the FOMC tonight and the ECB policy meet tomorrow.
The Indian 10YR GOI (7.23%) continues to rise sharply favoring Rupee weakness in the near term.
