A growing sense of caution has gripped the financial markets this week with investors on standby ahead of Thursday’s key healthcare vote in Congress which may thoroughly test the Trump bump. Uncertainty over Donald Trump’s proposed economic agenda has already triggered risk aversion and any complications in the healthcare reform could spell trouble for this phenomenal stock market rally. Global stocks may be exposed to downside shocks with the threat of a potential setback in the healthcare bill raising doubts over Trump’s ability to move forward with the proposed tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Today will be the first major test for Trump’s legislative ability and the outcome may either create a Trump slump or technical bounce for bulls to exploit.
Sterling hovering around 1.2500
Sterling has staged a remarkable rebound this week with bulls almost rebelling against the Brexit woes by propelling the GBPUSD above 1.2500 during Thursday’s trading session. The Dollar’s persistent weakness combined with February’s blockbuster retail sales figure of 1.4% may have created an illusion of a bullish bias returning to Sterling. Although the retail sales figure for February was unquestionably impressive and illustrated strong growth, the underlying three-month view from December and January still displayed a slowdown.
With the Article 50 set to be triggered next week and the focus redirected towards Brexit, Sterling could be instore for a messy rollercoaster ride. The lingering concerns over complications arising in the negotiation process may compound to the jitters consequently exposing Sterling to downside risks.
While bulls may be commended on their ability to exploit Dollar’s weakness and elevate Sterling repeatedly despite the Brexit anxieties, questions may be asked over how much steam the over-extended technical bounce has left. With uncertainty still the name of the game when dealing with Sterling, there remains a likelihood of the Brexit developments dictating where the currency trades with macro fundamentals becoming secondary.
From a technical standpoint, Sterling bulls may win the battle this week if 1.2500 is conquered. A decisive breakout and daily close above 1.2500 could open a path towards 1.2600. On the other hand, if 1.2500 remains defensive then bears have a chance to test Wednesday’s daily low at 1.2420.
Yellen conference in focus
King Dollar was on the back foot this week with the Dollar Index struggling to break back above 100.00 as sellers exploited the renewed Trump jitters to attack prices incessantly. Dollar bulls remain on the hunt for inspiration to pump life into the Greenback with Yellen’s speech today at a Community Development Conference seen as an opportunity. If Yellen dishes a hawkish surprise or any fresh insights on rate hike timings, then bulls could be encouraged to elevate the Dollar Index back towards the psychological 100.00 level. On the other hand, if bulls are left empty handed then the Greenback could be instore for further punishment in the short term.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
The risk-off trading environment has boosted appetite for safe-haven assets with Gold becoming an investor’s popular choice this week. Prices have climbed to a three-week high above $1250 with Dollar weakness fueling the upside momentum. Although Gold may find itself under pressure in the longer term when the Dollar stabilizes, risk aversion could uplift the yellow metal higher in the short term. From a technical standpoint, the fact that bulls have conquered $1240 on the daily charts suggests that the upside still has some steam. A decisive breakout above $1250 may open a path towards $1260.
