Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 5 Sep 2016
• Trend bias: Down
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
• Time of formation: 14 Mar 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
NZD/USD – 0.7030
Although kiwi fell sharply to as low as 0.6890 earlier this month, as the pair found good support there and has staged a strong rebound since, suggesting low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for the rebound from 0.6890 to bring at least a retracement of recent decline from 0.7376, hence further gain to the lower Kumo (now at 0.7119) is likely, however, break of previous support at 0.7130 is needed to retain bullishness and encourage for further subsequent rise to 0.7185-90 but resistance at 0.7247 should remain intact.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 0.7030-40 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.6990) and bring another rise later. Below support at 0.6968 would defer and risk weakness to 0.6920-30 but still reckon said support at 0.6890 would hold from here. Only a break below 0.6890 would revive bearishness and extend the fall from 0.7376 top to 0.6862, then towards 0.6775-80 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6074-0.7486) but price should stay well above previous chart support at 0.6675.
Recommendation: Turn long at 0.6980 for 0.7180 with stop below 0.6880
On the weekly chart, as kiwi found good support at 0.6890 and staged a rebound from there, suggesting the fall from 0.7376 has possibly ended there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7133), a weekly close above there would add credence to this view and encourage for further gain towards resistance at 0.7247. Having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7300-10 and price should falter below said resistance at 0.7376, bring retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 0.7000-10 and bring another rebound. Only below said support at 0.6890 would abort and bring test of previous support at 0.6862, however, a breach of latter level is needed to retain bearishness and extend the erratic decline from 0.7486 top to 0.6780 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6074-0.7486) and later towards previous chart support at 0.6675 which is likely to hold from here.
