EUR/JPY stayed in range below 164.89 last week despite late decline. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 164.89 will resume the rise from 156.16, as a leg in the corrective pattern from 154.40. Next target is 166.67. However, firm break of 160.89 will turn bias back to the downside for 156.16 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.21).
