EUR/JPY’s rally from 156.16 extended higher last week. The development is in line with the case that corrective pattern from 154.04 is extending with another rising leg. Initial bias stays on the upside for 166.67 resistance next. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 159.79 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 147.55).
