It’s finally Wednesday, likely the most important day of the week as we await the Fed’s decision. Expectations are for a 25-basis-point cut, but the real focus will be on the press conference and whether they deliver hawkish remarks. As you know, the US economic projections for next year are quite strong, so there may not be a need to cut rates in upcoming meetings, especially considering inflation remains well above their 2% target.
If the Fed sounds hawkish, we can expect the dollar to recover, and from an Elliott wave perspective, this seems likely after a strong rebound from 105.40, with move out of the corrective channel in five waves, so after some slowdown now ahead of the Fed, there’s a chance we’ll see continuation higher into a fifth wave. On the flip side, major currencies like the euro, Aussie, and Swiss franc could then drop.
What we should also watch closely are US yields and stocks. I think stocks could move lower, testing the downside of their recent ranges, especially the S&P 500, if Powell delivers a hawkish tone.
