GBP/JPY edged lower to 188.07 last week as fall from 199.71 extended, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 D EMA (now at 194.04) holds. On the downside, below 190.33 minor support will bring retest of 188.07 first. Break there will target 183.70 support next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it’s at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 172.51).
 holds. On the downside, below 190.33 minor support will bring retest of 188.07 first. Break there will target 183.70 support next.){kind=link}