The Canadian dollar is showing small gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4041, up 0.12% at the time of writing.
Canada’s job growth expected to climb
Canada releases job growth for November later today. The market estimate stands at 25 thousand, compared to 14.5 thousand in October.
The modest growth in job creation has not kept pace with the labor force, which has rapidly expanded as a result of high immigration to Canada. This has resulted in a high unemployment rate, which is expected to creep up to 6.6% in November from 6.5% a month earlier.
With inflation running at 2%, the Bank of Canada’s target, employment data has become a key factor for the central bank with regard to rate policy. The BoC has cut interest rates four times this year, including a jumbo 50-basis point rate cut in October.
What will the Bank of Canada do at the Dec. 11 meeting? The market is split on whether the BoC will cut rates by 25 or 50 bp at the meeting. BoC policymakers can point to low inflation and a cool labor market to support the case for an oversized 50-bp cut. However, an argument can be made for a modest 25 bp cut. The government has announced stimulus in the form of a temporary sales tax holiday, which could cause some growth and in turn inflation. As well, the battle with inflation is not yet won, as core inflation remains around 2.5%, above the BoC’s target of 2%. The bottom line? Next week’s rate decision is shaping up as a close call between a 25 bp and 50 bp rate cut.
The US wraps up the week with the nonfarm payroll report. With inflation largely tamed, job growth is once again a key release that should be considered a market-mover. The November report is expected to rise to a respectable 200 thousand, after a weak gain of 12 thousand in October, which was driven downwards by hurricanes and work stoppages at Boeing.
USD/CAD Technical
- USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.4039, followed by resistance at 1.4068
- 1.3996 and 1.3967 are the next support levels
