USDJPY fell to six-week low on Friday, in fresh acceleration lower after stronger than expected inflation rise in Tokyo in November, boosted expectations for Bank of Japan’s rate hike in the policy meeting next month.
Fresh bears cracked key supports at 150.18/00 (Fibo 38.2% of 139.57/156.74/psychological, reinforced by 55DMA), with weekly close below these level to boost negative signal for extension towards next strong support at 149.21 (top of rising and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud).
However, today’s dip to 149.52 and subsequent bounce back above 150 level, signals that bears face headwinds at this zone.
Prevailing tone on daily chart is bearish, supported by strengthening negative momentum, and attempts to form 5/200DMA death cross, but countered by support from rising daily cloud and oversold stochastic.
Watch today’s reaction at 150 support zone for fresh near-term direction signal, with bearish bias expected below 200DMA (151.98), but also be aware of predominantly bullish technical structure on weekly chart (despite the pair being on track for significant weekly loss, the first one after eight consecutive weeks of gains).
This situation may lead into two scenarios – failure at 150 zone and subsequent bounce that would generate initial signal of possible heathy correction, before larger bulls regain traction, or deeper correction of the rally of over two months.
Res: 150.45; 150.74; 151.28; 151.95.
Sup: 149.52; 149.21; 148.71; 148.16.
