AUD/USD’s fall from 0.6491 resumed last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6421. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 0.6257 next. On the upside, above 0.6511 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6687 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Firm break of 0.7156 resistance will argue that the third leg has already started towards 0.8006.
