The European Commission maintains its projection for Eurozone GDP growth at 0.8% in 2024, unchanged from its Spring forecast. However, it has slightly downgraded the 2025 growth projection to 1.3% from the previous 1.4% in Spring forecast, introducing a new projection of 1.6% growth in 2026. For the EU as a whole, GDP is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2024, 1.5% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026.
Inflation is anticipated to decline significantly. In Eurozone, headline inflation is projected to more than halve from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 2.5%. It is expected to ease further to 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. The EU is forecasted to see an even sharper disinflation, with headline inflation falling from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, continuing to decrease to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis highlighted that the EU economy is steadily recovering, with growth expected to gain momentum next year. Factors contributing to this acceleration include rising consumption driven by increased purchasing power, sustained record-low unemployment, and anticipated improvements in investment levels.
European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni noted that as inflation continues to ease and private consumption and investment growth pick up, supported by unemployment at record lows, growth is set to gradually accelerate over the next two years.
