The ATR indicator on the S&P 500’s 4-hour chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) currently shows a reduction in price volatility.
This drop in volatility can likely be attributed to:
→ The market having fully absorbed the impact of Trump’s recent presidential win;
→ No unexpected news from yesterday’s CPI report, which matched analysts’ inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley analysts believe the bull market could face challenges from:
→ A rise in treasury bond yields, potentially diverting investor funds;
→ A strengthening dollar, which could reduce export revenues for large companies;
→ Indicators suggesting stock valuations are becoming even more stretched.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) highlights that price is at a resistance zone created by:
→ The upper boundary of the upward blue channel, which began in early September;
→ The upper edge of the long-term ascending channel (shown in orange, previously charted in our S&P 500 analysis on October 14);
→ The psychological level of 6,000 points.
Given these factors, it’s reasonable to anticipate that bulls may encounter difficulties if they attempt to push past the 6,000 level.
A potential pullback may emerge following the S&P 500’s 4% rise since early November—perhaps towards the channel’s median or lower boundary.
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