The USD/JPY currency pair has climbed to a three-month high of 154.87, driven by the strengthening US dollar following Donald Trump’s election victory. Markets anticipate that Trump’s protectionist policies, which are expected to bolster the US economy, might also fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates than previously anticipated.
In Japan, producer prices rose at their fastest pace in 14 months in October, signalling persistent inflation pressures. Attention is shifting towards Japan’s GDP data for Q3 2024, set to be released on Friday, which will provide further insight into the economic trends affecting the yen.
The Bank of Japan is under scrutiny as it contemplates an interest rate increase to 1% per annum during the first half of fiscal 2025. However, Japanese monetary authorities remain cautious, considering the external economic factors and the challenges posed by persistent inflation.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market continues developing the third wave of growth to the level of 156.15. After reaching this level, we will consider the probability of the start of correction to the level of 154.15. Further, we expect the beginning of a new wave of growth to the level of 157.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above the zero level and is directed upwards.
On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 154.15 level and continues developing the wave to 156.15 with an upward exit. After reaching this level, we expect a correction towards 154.15, initially targeting 155.20. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the level of 50 and is directed upwards.
