- USDJPY tests 3-month high again and again
- Remains well above 200-day SMA
- Stochastic and RSI look overbought
USDJPY is failing to have a closing session beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 153.40 but is creating bullish spikes towards the three-month high of 153.90.
The pair remains well above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), but the momentum seems to be weak. The RSI is moving horizontally near the 70 level, while the stochastic created a bearish crossover between its %K and %D lines in the overbought area. Both indicate a potential end to the bullish mode in the short term.
If there is an attempt above the three-month high of 153.90, then the next hurdle to look for would be the 155.20 resistance ahead of the 158.85 and 160.20 restrictive lines.
If the bears manage to push the market below the 200-day SMA, their initial target would be the 50.0% Fibonacci of 150.75, which is in close proximity to the 20-day SMA. Diving further, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 148.10 may pause the negative movements.
To sum up, USDJPY has added more than 10% over the last one-and-a-half months, switching the near-term view to bullish. However, a move back below the 146.50-147.15 support zone could endorse the medium-term bearish bias.
