USD/CAD – 1.2785
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sold at 1.2770, Target: 1.2570, Stop: 1.2830
Position: – Short at 1.2770
Target: – 1.2570
Stop: – 1.2830
New strategy :
Exit short entered at 1.2770
Position: – Short at 1.2770
Target: –
Stop:-
Although the greenback did retreat after meeting resistance at 1.2773 yesterday, the pair found renewed buying interest at 1.2700 and has staged another rebound today, dampening our bearishness and suggesting near term upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.2665 (last week’s low) to extend gain to 1.2800, then test of resistance at 1.2820 but a firm break above this level is needed to signal the correction from 1.2917 has ended, bring further gain to 1.2880, then towards this level which is likely to hold from here.
In view of this, would be prudent to exit short entered at 1.2770 and stand aside for now. Only below said support at 1.2700 would revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.2665 has ended, bring another test o this level, break there would extend the fall from 1.2917 top for retracement of recent rise to support at 1.2636 but a drop below this level is needed to signal recent rise has ended at 1.2917, bring further fall to 1.2600 and later towards 1.2550-60.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.
