USD/JPY’s strong rebound and break of 38.2% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 148.11 argued that fall from 161.94 has completed already. Rise from 139.57 is now seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 161.94. Initial bias stays on the upside this week and further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 153.39 next. On the downside, below 145.91 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern from rise form 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should now be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 133.73).
