USD/CAD’s fall from 1.3946 resumed by breaching 1.3418, but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3646 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.3418 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3946 to 1.3439 from 1.3646 at 1.3333.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) is extending with another falling leg. While deeper decline could be seen, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
