EUR/JPY reversed after rebounding further to 163.47 last week. The development argues that corrective pattern from 154.40 might have completed with three waves to 163.47 already. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for retesting 154.40/155.14 support zone. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 163.47 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.99).
