EUR/USD’s strong rebound last week suggests that correction from 1.1200 has completed at 1.1001 already. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week. Decisive break of 1.1200 will resume whole rally fro 1.0665 to 1.1274 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, however, break of 1.1072 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1001 support instead.
In the bigger picture, prior break of 1.1138 resistance indicates that corrective pattern from 1.1274 might have completed at 1.0665 already. Decisive break of 1.1274 (2023 high) will confirm resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0665 at 1.1740. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0947 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). The strong break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1018) is taken as the first sign of bullish trend reversal. But still, firm break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 0.9534 could still develop into a consolidation pattern.
