GBP/JPY’s strong rebound last week suggests that fall from 193.45 has completed at 183.70 already. Rebound from there is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 180.00. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 193.45 resistance first. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35. On the downside, though, below 188.70 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it’s at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 170.18).
