GBP/JPY – 148.90
Original strategy:
Sold at 150.20, met target at 148.20
Position: – Short at 150.20
Target: – 148.20
Stop: –
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position: –
Target: –
Stop:-
Although sterling did resume recent fall from 151.90 top and indicated downside target at 148.20 was met, lack of follow through selling and current rebound from 148.05 suggest consolidation would be seen and corrective bounce to 149.50 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 150.00 would limit upside and price should falter below resistance at 150.30, bring another decline later this week.
As we have taken profit on our short position entered at 150.20, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below said support at 148.05 would extend the aforesaid erratic fall from 151.90 top to previous support at 147.80 but oversold condition should limit downside and support at 147.30 should remain intact.
Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.
