EUR/USD dipped to 1.1001 last week but rebounded ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0665 to 1.1200 at 1.0996. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.1153 resistance will suggest that later rally is ready to resume and target 1.1200, and then 1.1274 high. On the downside, however, sustained break of 1.0996 will indicate reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.0947 resistance turned support next.
In the bigger picture, prior break of 1.1138 resistance indicates that corrective pattern from 1.1274 might have completed at 1.0665 already. Decisive break of 1.1274 (2023 high) will confirm whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0665 at 1.1740. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0947 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). The strong break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1018) is taken as the first sign of bullish trend reversal. But still, firm break of 1.2348 structural resistance is needed to confirm. Otherwise, price actions from 0.9534 could still develop into a consolidation pattern.
