GBP/JPY fell further to 183.70 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 189.72 resistance holds. Below 183.70 will resume the fall from 193.45 to retest 180.00 low. Firm break there will extend whole decline from 208.09 to 175.94 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it’s at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 169.35).
