GBP/JPY’s decline last week suggests that rebound from 180.00 has completed at 193.45, ahead of 55 D EMA. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 180.00 low first. Break there will resume whole fall from 208.09. On the upside, above 189.76 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 208.09 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But it’s at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 169.35).
