EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9759 continued last week despite interim recovery. Initial bias is now on the downside this week. As noted before, rebound from 0.9209 should have completed at 0.9579, ahead of 55 D EMA. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.9209 first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9444 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, medium term corrective pattern from 0.9407 (2022 low) might have completed with three waves to 0.9928. Decisive break of 0.9252 (2023 low) will confirm long term down trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9928 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.2004 (2018 high) is part of the multi-decade down trend. Firm break of 0.9928 resistance is needed to be the first sign of long term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
