Summary
United States: Homes Out of Range
- Chair Powell delivered a distinctively dovish speech this week at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, a slew of housing data revealed that, although green shoots are sprouting, affordability issues continue to constrain the housing market. Meanwhile, another decline in the Leading Economic Index was a reminder that recession risks lie ahead.
- Next week: Durable Goods (Mon.), Personal Income & Spending (Fri.)
International: Adjusting Our Foreign Central Bank & U.S. Dollar Outlook
- We published our August International Economic Outlook report this week and made some notable adjustments to our forecasts. More specifically, with the Fed likely on track to cut interest rates in September, we believe select foreign central banks can also either cut more aggressively or initiate easing cycles. In addition, as we see the Fed front-loading its easing, we have also adjusted our U.S. dollar outlook to see a stable-to-stronger greenback over the second half of 2025.
- Next week: Canada GDP (Fri.), Eurozone CPI (Fri.), India GDP (Fri.)
Interest Rate Watch: Powell: “The Time Has Come for Policy to Adjust”
- In a widely anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., today, the Fed Chair signaled that the FOMC will be cutting rates at its next meeting on Sept. 18. The question is 25 bps or 50 bps?
Credit Market Insights: What Is Driving the Growth in Bankruptcy Filings?
- The rate of businesses filing for bankruptcy has picked up significantly in 2024 and is currently at its highest level since the global financial crisis. What is driving this growth in business bankruptcy, and is it something we should be alarmed about?
Topic of the Week: What a Downward Revision of 818K Jobs Means for the Labor Market
- The preliminary estimate for the 2024 benchmark revision to nonfarm payrolls (NFP) announced this week indicates the level of employment in March 2024 will be revised downward by 818K come the official annual benchmark in early 2025. The announcement was in line with expectations (including ours) for a large negative revision; so, what have we learned from the preliminary benchmark and the data that informed it?
