USD/JPY’s fall from 161.94 accelerated lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 140.25 support next. On the upside, above 150.88 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 149.98) argue that fall from 161.94 medium term is probably correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Deeper decline could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26, which is close to 140.25 support. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 156.04) holds.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 132.81).
