As shown on the XAU/USD chart, Monday, 22 July marked the fourth consecutive day of declining gold prices. The change from the historical peak reached on Wednesday is around -3.5%.
Bearish sentiment is driven by:
→ Market participants’ assessment of prospects due to the change of the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate in the US.
→ Caution in anticipation of economic news. On Thursday at 15:30 GMT+3, US GDP data will be released. On Friday at the same time, the Core PCE Price Index data will be published.
Market participants may also be influenced by the psychological level of $2500.
Can the Gold Price Fall Further?
Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart provides valuable insights:
→ In June, the gold price was within the range of 2290-2385. The rise to July’s peak corresponds to a target calculated by the range height: 2385 + (2385 – 2290) = 2480;
→ After reaching a record on 17 July, the price failed to hold above the May peak, which is a bearish sign;
→ The XAU/USD chart shows increasing support points for a descending channel (shown in red), which may form a corrective movement within a broader upward trend (shown in blue).
Bulls may take advantage of the gold price being near the support block of 2365-2385, which is formed by:
→ The former resistance at 2385;
→ The median lines of the blue and red channels.
However, if we see a weak rebound from this block, it may indicate that the gold price is indeed in a corrective phase.
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