Gold prices have continued their ascent, with a troy ounce of the precious metal reaching USD 2363. This rise is primarily fuelled by anticipated US employment data for June, which could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions.
Recent US economic indicators, including a contraction in the service sector and weaker-than-expected private sector employment figures from ADP, have painted a dovish picture regarding the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy moves. These factors contribute to the prevailing sentiment that the Fed might lower interest rates, with market probabilities favouring a cut by September currently standing at 73%.
Furthermore, ongoing political uncertainties in Europe, especially in France and the UK, affect the EUR exchange rate, thereby impacting the USD and indirectly influencing gold prices. Additionally, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Technical analysis of XAU/USD
Gold is currently undergoing a correction that is anticipated to conclude at the level of 2370.70. Post-correction, the market might experience a decline towards 2295.00. A break below this could extend losses to 2222.22, setting a local target. This bearish potential is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although above zero, shows signs of peaking.
On the hourly chart, gold formed a tight consolidation around 2345.70 and breached the 2366.26 level upward, setting a local high. A corrective move down to 2345.70 is likely, followed by a potential rise to 2370.70, completing the current correction phase. Subsequently, the market might prepare for a new downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, suggests an impending downturn, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective decline.
Investors and traders will closely monitor the release of the US jobs report, given its potential to significantly sway Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, gold prices.
