The NZD/USD pair is preparing for a mid-week rally, approaching the 0.6116 level. These current values mark the highest point for the Kiwi in two months, following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to maintain its monetary policy structure unchanged during the May meeting.
The interest rate remains at 5.5% per annum, as anticipated.
The RBNZ has determined that maintaining a restrictive monetary policy is necessary to ensure inflation returns to target within the planned timeframe. The central bank has noted a cooling labour market and rising unemployment as potential risks. Support factors include higher housing rents, insurance costs, and increasing utility rates.
According to the official forecast, the consumer price index in New Zealand is expected to return to the 1-3% range by the end of 2024.
Overall, the NZD exchange rate is poised to increase. The RBNZ’s policy is viewed as balanced and consistent, which helps mitigate the risks of excessive volatility for the Kiwi.
On a broader scale, investors are awaiting the minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve meeting, which will provide further insights into the Fed’s upcoming steps.
NZD/USD technical analysis
On the H4 chart of NZD/USD, a consolidation range has formed around the 0.6000 level. Following an upward breakout, a growth wave to 0.6151 has been achieved. A consolidation range is currently emerging around 0.6114. A downward breakout from this range could open the potential for a decline to 0.6000, the first target. After reaching this level, a correction wave to 0.6075 (testing from below) is possible, followed by a further decline along the trend to 0.5853. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but directed strictly downwards.
On the H1 chart, an impulse of decline to 0.6114 has formed. Today, the market might perform a correction to 0.6132. After this correction, the continuation of the growth wave to 0.6075 is expected, with the prospect of further trend development.
Summary
The NZD/USD pair is steadily rising, bolstered by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s consistent monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest potential corrections and further growth, with close attention to the upcoming US Federal Reserve minutes for additional market direction.
 is possible, followed by a further decline along the trend to 0.5853. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but directed strictly downwards.){kind=link}