Ahead of this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, our survey finds that offshore clients are more dovish than those onshore. Both groups are more dovish than the RBNZ.
- Market participants see an earlier start to RBNZ easing than RBNZ and Westpac forecasts.
- Survey participants are less dovish than market pricing.
- Offshore market participants are more dovish than New Zealand-based clients.
- Participants see the path of non-tradable and headline inflation as key risk factors.
- Offshore market participants see potential labour market weakness as being more important compared to New Zealand- based clients.
- There is a significant gulf between the RBNZ’s stance and the hopes of offshore market participants, which raises the stakes of the May Monetary Policy Statement and June quarter CPI.
