- WTI futures fall to a 4-month low before attempting a recovery
- But the 200-day SMA repeatedly rejects their rebound
- Momentum indicators suggest that bears are in charge
WTI oil futures (January delivery) have been on the retreat since their October peak of 89.85, breaking aggressively below historical support zones. Last week, the price dropped to its lowest levels since July before recouping some losses, but the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has been curbing its upside.
Should the 200-day SMA hold its ground and the price reverse lower, immediate support could be met at 75.97, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 64.20-95.02 upleg. A break beneath that region could pave the way for the recent four-month bottom of 72.40. Even lower, the 78.6% Fibo of 70.80 could provide downside protection.
Alternatively, if oil extends its short-term bounce, the bulls may attack the 50.0% Fibo of 79.61. Piercing through that area, the price could advance towards the 38.2% Fibo of 83.25. Further upside attempts could then stall around the 23.6% Fibo of 87.75.
In brief, WTI oil futures remain under relentless downside pressure, recording consecutive lower lows. However, a clear jump above the 200-day SMA could shift the short-term picture back to bullish.
 have been on the retreat since their October peak of 89.85, breaking aggressively below historical support zones. Last week, the price dropped to its lowest levels since July before recouping some losses, but the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) has been curbing its upside.){kind=link}