EUR/USD’s rise from 1.0447 resumed last week and hit as high as 1.0913 despite interim setback. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.1274 to 1.0447 at 1.0958 next. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 1.1274 high next. On the downside, below 1.0823 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is tentatively seen as the second leg. Hence while further rally could be seen, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern.
In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. it still early to call for bullish trend reversal is still staying inside falling channel. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1081) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.
