Last week, the BTC/USD rate rose to the level of USD 38k per coin on the excitement associated with the expected launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
However, as the week begins, bitcoin price performance shows signs that the hype appears to be waning:
- the speed with which the price dropped from the upper boundary of the channel and the high of the year to the middle of the channel (about -USD 1,700 in a few hours) indicates the aggressiveness of sellers;
- the price tried to resume its upward trend, but failed. This can be seen from the downward reversals from the level of 37,500
- the fact that the slopes of trend lines (shown in black) become less sharp is also a sign of weakening bullish sentiment.
It turns out that after a pronounced surge last week, the price has already dropped below the median line of the channel, and the MACD remains in the red zone.
Moreover, JP Morgan analysts point to fundamental reasons why a correction may follow the hype. Among them:
- The fact that spot Bitcoin ETFs are already active in Switzerland and Canada. If they really wanted to, investors could invest in them rather than wait for approval from the US SEC. Therefore, if the regulator gives the go-ahead, this will not mean a sharp influx of capital from buyers.
- That the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US may already be priced in.
- The assumption that court decisions in favor of crypto companies in disputes with the SEC will do little to clarify the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the United States.
Nevertheless, there is still potential for the price of bitcoin to rise to the psychological level of 40,000, if only because the ascending blue channel has not yet been broken.
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