ECB’s de Guindos foresees temporary inflation rebound, December forecasts crucial for policy assessment

In a speech today, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank expects “a temporary rebound” in inflation in the coming months as base-effect drops out of calculations. However, he emphasized that ECB foresees the overall disinflationary process to continue over the medium term.

De Guindos highlighted the unpredictability surrounding energy prices due to geopolitical tensions and fiscal policy impacts, along with the potential upward pressure on food prices resulting from adverse weather events and the broader climate crisis.

Despite a marked decrease in inflation, de Guindos warned that it is expected to remain high for an extended period, with persistent domestic price pressures. “We will therefore ensure that our policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary,” he affirmed.

Emphasizing the ECB’s data-dependent approach, de Guindos stated, “Our future decisions on policy rates will continue to be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis.” He added that the ECB’s December meeting, armed with fresh macroeconomic projections and additional data, will be crucial for reassessing the inflation outlook and necessary policy actions.

Full speech of ECB de Guindos here.