- Gold stalls recovery; cannot surpass 20-SMA
- Sentiment weakens, but the bulls might have another chance
Gold rebounded from a three-week low of 1,944 on Thursday, but the recovery was immediately stopped by the 20-period SMA on the four-hour chart at 1,962. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend cemented that ceiling, forcing the price to move lower.
The latest negative reversal in the RSI is discouraging, but the indicator is still in an upward move since bottoming out in the oversold region. Also, the MACD keeps recovering some distance above its red signal, suggesting that the bulls might have some fuel in the tank.
If resistance at 1,962 stands firm though, the precious metal could plummet again towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1,933. The 200-period SMA might tackle selling pressures slightly lower at 1,923 and ahead of the 50% Fibonacci of 1,909. Then, if the bears breach the 1,900 psychological mark, the bearish wave might pick up pace towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1,886.
In the positive scenario, where gold jumps above its 20-period SMA, traders might pay attention to the 50-period SMA at 1,976. A bounce higher could take a breather around the 1,995 barrier. If the bulls successfully claim the latter, they might fight for an uptrend resumption above the wall of 2,009-2,020.
All in all, despite the negative mood in the market, the technical signals leave the door open to another upturn. A rebound above 1,962 could renew buying appetite. Otherwise, November’s bearish wave could hit new lows.
